Welcome!

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

—Danish proverb

This is a blog for my scattered thoughts on where humanity might be headed.

I’ll be writing about population, prosperity, health, technology, energy, climate, and more.

I’m not especially qualified to write about these topics. I’ve done some reading (not nearly enough), and one of my goals is just to write down some reactions to what I’ve read. I make no claims of originality. If some of my ramblings can lead to interesting conversations, so much the better.

My background is in physics. This is a bit of an asset because it gives me a foundation for trying to understand energy and climate and technology, not to mention numbers. But it’s also a liability, because the types of mathematical models that provide insight into a nuclear reaction or an idealized refrigerator are of limited use for understanding the behavior of a complex planet teeming with billions of people. Too often we physicists over-extend ourselves into disciplines where our methods just don’t work:

The title of this blog, evoking the Danish proverb quoted above, is a reminder to myself to approach this subject with humility.

Thank you for reading! I hope you find something worthwhile here.